Europe’s telecommunications sector is undergoing profound transformation. While the broader digital ecosystem continues to expand, growth is increasingly uneven: enabling technologies – Cloud, AI and Cybersecurity – are accelerating, while traditional connectivity services show signs of stagnation or declining value. As a result, value creation is shifting toward the upper layers of the ecosystem, now dominated largely by non‑EU global players – heightening Europe’s exposure to technological dependence.
The European market remains highly fragmented, with 34 mobile operators and more than 350 MVNOs, a structure that limits economies of scale and constrains investment capacity, slowing the transition to more advanced network architectures. Italy stands out as the most critical case, with contracting mobile revenues, declining private investment and significant infrastructure needs.
The study outlines four possible trajectories toward 2040 – from the gradual marginalisation of traditional operators in favour of global digital giants, to scenarios involving deeper integration and European‑wide specialization. What is at stake is not only the future of the sector, but Europe’s digital and strategic autonomy, which will depend on coherent policy and investment choices.
Author: WRestart/ Digital Innovation Observatories, Politecnico di Milano
Publisher: World Economic Forum
Publication date: January 2026