The stabilization and relaunch of the domestic business continues and a new growth phase is starting, related to adjacent markets, in particular to content and innovative services for business customers. The new Group structure aims at TIM’s leadership in the innovative ICT services for enterprises and public administration, with specialized factories for cloud (Noovle), IoT (Olivetti), cyber security (Telsy) and international services (Sparkle).
On the content front, the agreement with DAZN complements a number of already established partnerships with Disney+, Discovery, Mediaset Infinity, Netflix, Amazon PrimeVideo and other players in this sector that make TIM Vision the richest TV platform in the Italian market.
TIM updates its financial targets further to the agreement with DAZN, the delayed startup of the second phase of the Government’s program to support digitalization (vouchers plan) and the relative implications for the competitive environment.
The distribution agreement TIM-DAZN is expected to generate incremental revenues already in 2021 and, when at regime in 2022-2023, it is forecast to drive an acceleration of Domestic revenues and EBITDA growth (low to mid single digit/mid single digit growth) and of the Group’s revenues and EBITDA growth (low to mid single digit /mid single digit growth). The initiative’s start-up costs imply it will bring a positive contribution to EBITDA only from 2022.
The expected contribution from the voucher plan to improve revenues and EBITDA and to ease the competitive environment is confirmed, however, due to the delays in the implementation of phase 2, it is now forecast at a slightly later stage implying, along with the cited incremental costs for the start-up of the DAZN partnership, a revision of the EBITDA targets for 2021 to “low to mid single-digit decrease” (mid single-digit Domestic).
Cash generation targets are confirmed, with 4 billion euros Equity Free Cash Flow in the plan period and a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 2,6x in 2023.
Dividends distribution policy is confirmed: 1 euro cent (floor) for ordinary shares and 2.75 euro cent for savings.
Expected benefits from the Resilience and Recovery Fund on the domestic market and from Oi mobile assets acquisition with Vivo and Claro, are not yet factored in the guidance.
Domestic KPIs confirmed an improving trend in Q2.
· TIM fixed lines stabilization is confirmed also in Q2 helped by the return to growth of the Italian wireline market, that at the end of Q1 ’21 showed an increase of 450k lines YoY (source AGCOM), and by FTTH connections in particular, where TIM had the most relevant acceleration compared to other operators in the period March 2020 – March 2021.
· Ultrabroadband lines kept growing in line with Q1 thanks to an increasingly rich and convergent service portfolio, and to the push coming from increased fiber coverage, with 93% of the Italian families with a fixed line now reached with UBB.
· In mobile, in a market that remains highly competitive in the low-spending segment, the stabilization of TIM’s mobile customer base continues: in “mobile number portability” (customers switching operators) TIM is recording for the 4th quarter in a row the best result among infrastructure operators.
· In Brazil accelerating growth trends of revenues and EBITDA are confirmed.